Analysts say Abiy is using the war to plan a move against Eritrea

With the war in Ethiopia escalating quickly, to the point of repeated attacks on the country's air force base a short distance from Addis Ababa, the situation is beginning to take on the shape of a cross-border war, Ethiopian political analysts say.

The analysts cite three events they describe as linked.

First, the statement the president of the Afar region gave to Al Jazeera on 28 September. He said Eritrean forces had cut the road between Ethiopia and Djibouti in an effort to stop the region reaching Djibouti's ports, and asked the African Union to intervene on the grounds that the matter amounts to an attempt to change borders by force.

Second, that Redwan Hussein, director general of Ethiopia's National Intelligence and Security Service, requested a visa for an urgent visit to Sudan and was refused.

Third, that the new fighting in Baidoa, Somalia, was intended to keep Somalia occupied with its own internal affairs.

The analysts added that the Prosperity Party's repeated accusations against Eritrea, and its appeal to the African Union, may be political groundwork for an attempt to secure sea access.

The Ethiopian government has not responded to the assessment.